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Allegiant Airlines

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Grant in Wichita	Allegiant Airlines	Lead	[-]
Posts: 23 (09/03/08 20:45:36) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Tags : None First of all, I hate to start another thread about Allegiant on here, I saw how heated the last one got. I'm not looking for reassurance from Capt. Bunn because I don't think he can honestly give me reassurance and I respect that. I understand his points he makes about Allegiant (not enough flights under their belt to mean anything, troublesome maintenance issues). I am writing this post because I am pretty scared about an upcoming trip I am taking to Vegas (from Wichita Kansas) with a group of friends who talked us into going spur of the moment. We are flying Allegiant, we leave on Friday, October 3rd and we get back on Monday, October 6th. After reading through some of Capt. Bunn's comments I feel like the most irresponsible parent for choosing to fly Allegiant. I feel that I have put my wife and I at a huge risk of dying...is that a little over the top? I have always been fearful of flying, but it has gotten worse since I've had kids...and I have three (ages 7,3,2). Again, Capt Bunn, I am not looking for reassurance because I know you can't give that to me regarding Allegiant, but I would like you to answer a couple questions for me at your convenience. 1. I have driven to Vegas twice from Wichita and if I was driving for this trip I would not be worried one bit. Would I be in more danger driving there and back then I am flying Allegiant? 2. Is the fact that Allegiant has signed a maintenance agreement with American Airlines make them any safer or give them anymore credibility then what you originally thought? http://findarticles.com/p..._2006_Dec_18/ai_n26711370 3. Is it possible that your contact who shared the troublesome maintenance records with you did so before the AA agreement was in effect with Allegiant? 4. I also thought I read that Allegiant purchased their MD-80 fleet off of the reconditioned market and that the average age of their planes is 18 1/2 years old (not sure when this article was written). Does that seem old for a plane, is that a big concern? 5. I do know that Allegiant has not had a crash (knock on wood) since they have been in existance for over 10 years, however I know they fly much less on a daily basis then the bigger airlines. Where can I find out how many fights Allegiant does have under their belt? 6. If you were flying or had a loved one flying on the trip that I'm going on would you be thinking along the lines of "they could have made a much better choice of airlines but they will probably be ok" or would it be more along the lines of "I am going to be very concerned about this until they return home safe"? Thanks in advance Capt Bunn and any other Captain or member that chimes in. I would appreciate any Allegiant experiences...I'm not too concerned with delays or anything like that, I just want to hear if people felt safe or vice versa. After reading the original Allegiant Airlines article I feel like my days are numbered.... Anyway, thanks a lot in advance everyone! Grant
Capt Tom Bunn MSW LCSW		#1	[-]
Posts: 2386 (09/04/08 02:53:03) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Dear Grant, There are at least two ways to look at it. You can figure that flying is so remarkably safe that it is almost certain that you will get there regardless of what airline you fly. And that is true. You can also figure that, though you are almost certain to get there regardless, some airlines are better than others. The better airlines have fatal accidents only half as often as mediocre airlines. Statistics from the past are clear. Some airlines have twice as many crashes. Some have ten times as many crashes. Though any airline is extremely likely to get you there, if you really have a choice between an airline that has had ten times as many crashes as another, you might want to choose the airline has has crashed less. Though statistics of past performance may or may not be a good predictor of future performance, I think it definitely is something to take into consideration. Without a doubt, the record of Southwest Airlines is impressive. No passenger fatalities in the last twenty-five years. But consider this; Hawaiian Airlines has had no passenger fatalities in the last twenty-five years. But that fact is NOT impressive! Why? During that time, Hawaiian has flown only 660,000 flights. Southwest has flown 15,260,000. Southwest has flow twenty-three times as many flights -- passenger fatality free -- as has Hawaiian. To further complicate -- or simplify -- things. consider Midwest which has had a similar number of flights as Hawaiian in the last twenty-five years. In that time, Midwest has had one fatal accident. Look what one accident does to the ACCIDENT RATE for an airline with so little flying: the rate is 1.92. 1.92 accidents per million flights is an ELEVEN TIMES higher rate than that of Delta (at 0.17). Does that mean Delta is really eleven times safer? Or does that mean Midwest is eleven times worse? No. Why? Because until an airline has had about five-million flights, a low accident rate may involve a lot of luck. But, on the other hand, a high accident rate DOES mean something -- maybe -- and the maybe depends upon, how many accidents? Midwest has had only one. Consider EgyptAir. Here is where, clearly, a high accident means something. EgyptAir's accident rate is 7.60 which is about forty-five times higher than Delta's rate. There are seven accidents with only about as much flying as Midwest and as Hawaiian. I don't think anyone could look at that record and think you are as safe on EgyptAir as on the other airlines mentioned. So now, back to Allegiant. Allegiant does not, as yet, have enough flights to have ANY statistical significance, and because of that, Todd Curtis (who runs www.airsafe.com) does not list Allegiant. The fact that Allegiant has had no accidents may -- itself -- be "an accident". Based on copies of maintenance logs of Allegiant planes I have received, the quality of day-to-day maintenance is questionable. The maintenance agreement with American is for major overhaul, done once every few years. Day-to-day maintenance is not done primarily by American. As I see it, the only protection a passenger has against being on a plane that needs maintenance is a captain who, having inspected the plane and read the log book entries on the plane for the last dozen flights or so, can refuse to fly the plane without being fired. That is NOT the case at Allegiance where I know a pilot WAS fired for refusing to fly a plane which caused him concern.
Grant in Wichita		#2	[-]
Posts: 24 (09/04/08 08:42:22) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Thank you so much for your response Captain! I do understand most of what you wrote. Hey, I flew Midwest Airlines this summer and did just fine...so that helps! ha ha.... But do you think, if you have the time you could answer a couple of my questions specifically? I'm just curious to see your response. 1. I have driven to Vegas twice from Wichita and if I was driving for this trip I would not be worried one bit. Would I be in more danger driving there and back then I am flying Allegiant? 2. Is the fact that Allegiant has signed a maintenance agreement with American Airlines make them any safer or give them anymore credibility then what you originally thought? http://findarticles.com/p..._2006_Dec_18/ai_n26711370 No need to answer this one because you already did....I find that weird though that they signed a four year deal when that service only needs to be done once every few years like you said. 3. Is it possible that your contact who shared the troublesome maintenance records with you did so before the AA agreement was in effect with Allegiant? Again....no need to answer this one either. 4. I also thought I read that Allegiant purchased their MD-80 fleet off of the reconditioned market and that the average age of their planes is 18 1/2 years old (not sure when this article was written). Does that seem old for a plane, is that a big concern? Thanks in advance! Also, any other experiences (good or bad) will be greatly appreciated from members who have flown Allegiant! Grant
Grant in Wichita		#3	[-]
Posts: 25 (09/04/08 08:43:26) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Oops...here were my other two questions I left off above... 5. I do know that Allegiant has not had a crash (knock on wood) since they have been in existance for over 10 years, however I know they fly much less on a daily basis then the bigger airlines. Where can I find out how many fights Allegiant does have under their belt? 6. If you were flying or had a loved one flying on the trip that I'm going on would you be thinking along the lines of "they could have made a much better choice of airlines but they will probably be ok" or would it be more along the lines of "I am going to be very concerned about this until they return home safe"?
Capt Tom Bunn MSW LCSW		#4	[-]
Posts: 2388 (09/05/08 06:57:18) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	1. Interesting question. A few years after 9/11, some safety experts became interested to know whether, as a result of 9/11, people were driving long distances instead of flying, and thus where MORE exposed to risk. A very scientific study was done. It looked at U.S. airline safety statistics for the last 25 years and figured out how many flights it took (on average of the entire industry) to produce a fatal crash. Then, it looked at home many miles of Interstate driving it took to produce a fatal crash. Then, with those statistics at hand, they came up with how many miles of driving has the same risk of fatality as taking an airline flight. The results were pretty astounding: it took ONLY 10.8 miles of Interstate driving (the safest driving environment in the U.S.) to equal the risk of a flight (based on stats from the past twenty-five years). This means, every time you drive 10.8 miles, you have exposed yourself to the same risk as taking a flight; the length of the flight is not significant since length is done during cruise and accidents during cruise are so rare that the researches figured it would be just as well to consider length of flight too unimportant to bring into the equation. What this research tells us is: a. If you stay home and do your usual routine, you probably are going to drive multiples of 10.8 miles (and not it takes only 5.4 miles of non-interstate driving to produce the same risk). So, ten minutes of driving is equal in risk to ten hours of flying. You are safer if you take a flight than do your usual daily routine. That can help you understand why insurance companies give pilots the best life insurance rates; they are a good risk; flying protects them from the risks most people are exposed to. b. The research showed that, by turning to driving instead of flying, more people had been killed on the highways who would not have died if they had flown than were killed in the World Trade Center towers! As a further note on the four year deal for maintenance; they already needed overhaul because the planes had been in service on an average of 18 years already. 3. Re: Is it possible that your contact who shared the troublesome maintenance records with you did so before the AA agreement was in effect with Allegiant? Yes, the agreement was in effect; the problem was not American's overhaul (which is excellent), but day-to-day maintenance. 4. Re: I also thought I read that Allegiant purchased their MD-80 fleet off of the reconditioned market and that the average age of their planes is 18 1/2 years old (not sure when this article was written). Does that seem old for a plane, is that a big concern? When overhaul is done properly, the plane comes out as good as new. 5. Re: I do know that Allegiant has not had a crash (knock on wood) since they have been in existance for over 10 years, however I know they fly much less on a daily basis then the bigger airlines. Where can I find out how many fights Allegiant does have under their belt? I don't know. You could email Todd at www.airsafe.com and see if he has some numbers. 6. Re: If you were flying or had a loved one flying on the trip that I'm going on would you be thinking along the lines of "they could have made a much better choice of airlines but they will probably be ok" or would it be more along the lines of "I am going to be very concerned about this until they return home safe"? I guess the best thing I can tell you is this: when JetBlue started, it appeared they were doing things right because, instead of purchasing old planes, they obtained new ones. So when my kids wanted to fly to the beaches in Florida where they could nnot conveniently fly using passes on United (where I was until retirement, and still get passes), I would buy a ticket for them on JetBlue. But as time passed and the management at Blue started doing things which, in my view, compromised safety, I told my kids I would no longer put them on Blue and so we looked for the best price on tickets with major airlines. Though it cost me a lot more money, I knew I would feel a lot better if they were in a crash if I knew I had not "cheaped out". So, I guess it was just a way of making sure I didn't feel guilt; I wanted to know I had made the best decision, a decision based on the soundest airline operations rather than the cheapest fare. Also, when iamplify.com asked me to do a fear of flying course for them, I set it up. Then they told me they were going to do marketing of the course with JetBlue; I told them that might be a problem because if management at Blue was aware of my views, they wouldn't want to work with me. I told iamplify.com people I would talk with Blue management and see if they could convince me I was wrong, but that never happened. In other words, I put my money where my mouth is, both in terms of my kids and my income. JetBlue and Allegiant are the only two airlines without a union. There is no way I am going to put my kids on either airline. I fully recognize that crashes are so rare that the chances of them being harmed on either airline are rare, but I don't want the guilt. Even if they fly a major airline and crash, I least I will know I made the choice based on the best info available to me, even if it didn't work out.
Grant in Wichita		#5	[-]
Posts: 26 (09/05/08 07:51:57) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Thank you very much for your detailed response! Although it isn't 100% encouraging that isn't what I was looking for, I wanted to hear your honest answers. It sounds to me like you are saying I could have flown on other airlines and made a much better choice, but Allegiant will still more than likely get me there and back safe because crashes are so rare. Anyway, thanks again! I have never met a pilot, but I will probably do so this time because of my concern. Is it innappropriate to ask them if they feel 100% safe flying their planes and if they think their maintenance is up to par? I don't want to offend anyone! Thanks again, Grant
Capt Tom Bunn MSW LCSW		#6	[-]
Posts: 2390 (09/05/08 14:19:59) Reply Quote More My Recent Posts	Hi Grant, If you are already set up to fly with them, I would go ahead. Any airlines is pretty safe. Just, as you said, you may want to consider all your options in the future and fly the non-union airlines only if there is no other choice, or the fare is too low to resist. Tom

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Note from Capt. Tom

I know everyone worries about weather, but pilots really do not worry about it. We simply - instead of worrying about it - completely prepare for it. Before going to the plane, we review the weather at the destination. If it is not 100% sure to be within legal limits when we arrive at the destination, we must specify an alternate airport in our planning documents, and load on plenty of fuel for going to the destination airport, and then if need be, diverting to the alternate airport.

The legal limits are conservative. Even when weather is slightly outside the legal limits, any airline pilot could still land safely. You can rely on the captain never to land when the weather is not legal, and legality limits are reached prior to safety limits.

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Using Weather Information

If you enter your ZIP Code or City at the top of the weather presentation, it will give you weather for your area. Or, you can enter your destination ZIP Code or City.

Click on the "LOCAL RADAR" button to see whether or not there are thunder-
storms. Keep in mind, however, that we can either fly above the storms when cruising or fly through gaps between storms. During landing, we cannot fly above them, but fly through gaps, or through the area of the storms where the turbulence is least.

Turbulence, though it may cause anxiety, does not mean anything is wrong. Turbulence does not mean danger. The plane can handle far more turbulence than Mother Nature can dish out.

Though flying in turbulence is safe, it doesn't feel safe. And here is where the SOAR programs come in. We can help you feel as safe when you fly as you actually are.

You can see these programs at www.fearofflying.com/store.

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