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 Gregnewing |
Crusing again |
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Posts: 2 (06/26/09 11:19:00) |
Hello,
though i posted earlier about crusing..... I am wondering what has caused any flights to crash during crusing, what could the possible causes be and what would a survival chance be? Any help would be welcomed. |
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Capt Tom Bunn MSW LCSW |
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Posts: 2625 (06/26/09 11:58:52) |
Because there are so many safety systems, it becomes difficult to come up with anything that could cause a crash. Imagination doesn't take that fact into
consideration, and becomes - itself - a problem.
Flying is as safe now as it was a month ago. If you persist in imagination about what went wrong, you only set yourself up. |
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Gregnewing |
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Posts: 3 (06/27/09 13:58:17) |
I agree with this, and do have a vivid imagination. Are you referring to the Air France flight though? If so yes I agree that was a fluke, and I'm (only)
guessing it was caused by weather, which I'm really not worried about encountering in the area of which I am flying (Istanbul-Amaan). However, other than
weather or other than that air france flight crash has there been other instances which a plane has fatally crashed during crusing (As that is ... oddly...
the only bit of flying that bothers me)? Not to fuel my imagination, (which I'm working on) but I'm sure more knoweldge on the subject would help
over-imagination and you seem quite knoweldgeable on the subject. If you could elaborate that would be great
 .
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Capt Tom Bunn MSW LCSW |
cruise accidents | ||
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Posts: 2627 (06/28/09 08:28:54) |
Take a look at the research done by Sivak and Flannagan to compare the risks of flying versus driving. This research was done because it appeared that
thousands of people died AFTER 9/11 because of switching from flying to driving.
But to go to your point, in their research, they took the view that so few accidents happen during cruise that they decided to simplify their research and ignore such crashes. They are, indeed, few. See the research at this link. |
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Gregnewing |
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Posts: 4 (07/03/09 14:01:32) |
Thanks, that was a very interesting article. I agree that a fear of flying is pretty irrational, yet I cant help but wonder what would cause the 5% of
cruising crashes.
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Capt Tom Bunn MSW LCSW |
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Posts: 2632 (07/03/09 17:05:25) |
During cruise it can be any one thing. Has to be something very unusual.
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Gregnewing |
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Posts: 5 (07/05/09 02:04:13) |
I hear autopilot can be a cause. Is this true? (autopilot malfunctions)
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Capt Tom Bunn MSW LCSW |
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Posts: 2634 (07/05/09 11:07:54) |
I read the entire interim report. The autopilot kicked off, but that is nothing - at least - nothing in itself. Why did it do that? Looks like some sensors or
computers receiving info from sensors caused it to kick off. That's about all that is known other than that it didn't go into the water in a dive, but
hit the water belly first, and did not come apart in the air. Very strange situation. I have some ideas, but they are not supported well enough to get people
involved in more speculation which only leads to memorization of imagination, which leads to self-traumatization.
The best thing is to let it go until there is definitely information. |
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Gregnewing |
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Posts: 7 (07/05/09 15:26:43) |
I cannot thank you enough, you have been very helpful (I've been in flying around the Middle East, about to enter my 6th flight). I have one more question
concerning weather: How much of a role does weather play in plane crashes during cruising? I mean, weather is one thing that actually has never bothered me
during flying (probably because I usually fly in very fair weather anyway), but what bothers me seems to be the fair weather... Its odd, but no turbulence
seems to be "too good to be true" and thats when I begin to become nervous... For me, if fair weather greatly increases the safety of the flight and
functioning of the machinery (which I would assume it would) it would be good to know for sure. I know this may sound like an obvious question, but you
know....
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Capt Tom Bunn MSW LCSW |
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Posts: 2635 (07/05/09 16:34:18) |
None. I can't recall a crash in which weather at cruise altitude was the cause. I think the real reason for fear of turbulence is that it makes it hard to
keep the fact that you are flying out of mind. When smooth, you can think of other things. But turbulence intrudes.
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Gregnewing |
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Posts: 8 (07/05/09 17:01:01) |
But, isnt the cold or lightining related to crashes at all... I usually just reassure myself that if the weather is fair then a crash is unlikely... I guess I
just need to educate myself more on this topic.
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OneAnt |
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Posts: 854 (07/06/09 06:42:10) |
Personally, I think you're going about this the wrong way, Gregnewing. Your goal should be to learn to put your trust in the hands of the experts (the flight deck crew) and stop worrying about these things yourself. If you're unable to do that now, then SOAR will help you accomplish this. Fact is, your kind of questions only lead to more questions, and more questions, and more questions. Even if all your questions are answered, you'll still come up with another that might keep you from flying. A crash is unlikely ALL the time, not just when the weather is fair. Lightning is not a big deal. Planes aloft are struck all the time, and have been designed to withstand it and shrug it off. The charge is passed around the aluminum hull and no damage is done to either the aircraft or the passengers. Can you imagine engineers designing a big metal tube that woulf fly through the air that wasn't capable of handling lightning? Pretty daft. Cold is not factor to be concerned with either. Think about this: the average temperature at 32000ft is probably -50C. Planes were designed to fly in that. In the air is an airplanes natural state; that's where it was meant to be. |
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Gregnewing |
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Posts: 9 (07/08/09 13:04:43) |
Alas, I cant help but wonder why all the bad crashes this year were in bad weather.
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OneAnt |
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Posts: 856 (07/08/09 15:01:18) |
Which ones are you referring to when you say "all" because you certainly can't actually mean ALL of them.
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Gregnewing |
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Posts: 10 (07/08/09 21:58:35) |
Air France, Air Yemenia, and the one near Buffalo.
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OneAnt |
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Posts: 857 (07/09/09 06:13:41) |
Occurring during less-than-fair weather does not mean that weather was, in any way, a factor.
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Capt Tom Bunn MSW LCSW |
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Posts: 2645 (07/09/09 06:26:45) |
Regarding weather.
Several other planes flew the same route as Air France the same night, just a few minutes ahead of behind Air France, and had no trouble with the weather. The Buffalo accident had nothing to do with weather. The weather issue was the media making up b.s. The other accident involved an airline the E.U. considered highly questionable. It may have been weather-related in the sense that the pilot may not have been competent, or not used proper judgment. When operating into airports which lack modern facilities, it is essential that the pilots be well-trained and disciplined. It very well may turn out to be pilot error, but it also maintenance of the plane is also a suspected factor, based on E.U. criticisms. This last accident should mean nothing to you unless you expect to go flying in the third-world on airlines you have never heard of. |
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Gregnewing |
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Posts: 11 (07/16/09 14:26:48) |
Well, I do occasionally fly airlines in developing nations... However, I agree that some are less reputable than others. I guess pilot error seems a big
thing, I suppose I must learn to trust them more.
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Note from Capt. Tom I know everyone worries about weather, but pilots really do not worry about it. We simply - instead of worrying about it - completely prepare for it. Before going to the plane, we review the weather at the destination. If it is not 100% sure to be within legal limits when we arrive at the destination, we must specify an alternate airport in our planning documents, and load on plenty of fuel for going to the destination airport, and then if need be, diverting to the alternate airport. The legal limits are conservative. Even when weather is slightly outside the legal limits, any airline pilot could still land safely. You can rely on the captain never to land when the weather is not legal, and legality limits are reached prior to safety limits. If you are still anxious, call me and we can talk it over. I'm at 877 332-7359 from 10 AM until 7 PM Eastern time. For effective help, even if you are flying in a day or two, sign up now at www.fearofflying.com/fasttrack and call me when you finish Clip 9 so I can make sure you are all set. |
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Using Weather Information If you enter your ZIP Code or City at the top of the weather presentation, it will give you weather for your area. Or, you can enter your destination ZIP Code or City.
Click on the "LOCAL RADAR" button to see whether or not there are thunder- Turbulence, though it may cause anxiety, does not mean anything is wrong. Turbulence does not mean danger. The plane can handle far more turbulence than Mother Nature can dish out. Though flying in turbulence is safe, it doesn't feel safe. And here is where the SOAR programs come in. We can help you feel as safe when you fly as you actually are. You can see these programs at www.fearofflying.com/store. |
